This is according to new analysis of supporter prediction data from LiveFootballTickets, with fans proving just how difficult England’s top flight can be to call.
The study, based on a survey of 2,000 Premier League supporters conducted before the start of the 2025/26 campaign, compared fans’ predicted final standings with the current table after Game Week 33 in April. The results paint a striking picture of how dramatically fortunes have shifted across the division.
Spurs top the list of clubs falling furthest short of supporter expectations. Fans had predicted the north London club to finish sixth at the start of the season, but with just four games remaining they find themselves down in 18th, a staggering 12 places below expectations and locked in a battle to avoid relegation.
What was expected to be a promising campaign under Thomas Frank quickly unravelled, and with Roberto De Zerbi now in the dugout, the focus has shifted entirely from European ambitions to Premier League survival.
At the opposite end of the scale, Brentford and Bournemouth have delivered the biggest overachievement stories of the season. Both clubs currently sit eight places higher than fans predicted back in August.
Bournemouth, tipped by supporters to finish 15th, have instead climbed into seventh and are firmly in the hunt for European football despite concerns over key summer departures. Brentford’s rise has been just as impressive, with the Bees predicted to finish 17th but currently sitting ninth.
Newly promoted Sunderland have also silenced doubters. Supporters expected the Black Cats to struggle near the foot of the table in 19th, yet they currently occupy 12th place, seven positions above expectations and comfortably clear of trouble.
Not every traditionally ambitious club has delivered. Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United are both seven places below where supporters expected them to be at this stage of the season.
Forest, tipped for ninth, are down in 16th and looking nervously over their shoulders, while Newcastle’s slide to 14th has only intensified scrutiny around Eddie Howe as questions continue over the club’s direction.
At the top of the table, only Manchester City have matched supporter expectations exactly, sitting second just as fans predicted before a ball was kicked.
However, with City still in touching distance of leaders Arsenal and the title race entering its final weeks, supporters may yet have one final twist to reconsider before the season reaches its dramatic conclusion.